Original Research

Budget impact analysis of the HIV/AIDS treatment on a national scale: a study from the Vietnam Social Security perspective


Objectives: To analyze the budget impact of the HIV/AIDS treatment on a national scale, from the Vietnam Social Security (VSS) perspective.

Methods: A model with a 5-year time horizon was developed. The total first year direct medical cost (DMC) and its cost components were estimated for HIV-infected populations each year. Budget impact was described through the proportion of the DMC over the social health insurance (SHI) budget. A scenario analysis was conducted with four settings of different proportions of members and coverage levels of the SHI. All costs were converted to 2020 US dollars. 1-way sensitivity analyses were conducted with variations of mean values in a range of ±25%.

Results: The total DMC was estimated at $1.8M (10,000 cases) to treat all new infections and $27.7M (150,000 cases) to reach the treatment goal of the Ministry of Health (MOH) in 2020. The total DMC accounted for 0.6% of the SHI budget for the year 2020 to meet the treatment goal. The costs of CD4-count test and fully suppressive regimen containing Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (TDF) were identified as key cost drivers. The proportion of the total DMC over the SHI budget among different scenarios did not vary significantly.

Conclusion: This is the first-ever study analyzing the budget impact of the HIV/AIDS treatment on a national scale, from the VSS perspective. The results showed that the cost of HIV/AIDS care was economical and the impact on the SHI budget was reasonable. Findings could be used to notify the MOH to allocate domestic resources and to optimize the current programs.

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