A scoring scheme prediction model for dengue outbreaks using weather factors in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam

Original Research

Abstract

Background: The dengue infection cases are increasing in Ho Chi Minh city (HCMC), Vietnam. Previous studies have demonstrated the correlation between dengue cases and weather factors, which then are used to built prediction models for dengue outbreaks. However, the association between dengue and weather varies greatly between regions and locations. In HCMC, a tropical climate city in Vietnam, there is no such a weather-based prediction model for dengue outbreaks.

Objectives: This study aims to determine the correlation between weather factors and a weekly number of dengue cases and to develop a scoring scheme prediction model for dengue outbreaks using weather factors in HCMC, Vietnam. 

Methods: An ecological study was conducted on the evaluation of weekly time-series data from 1999 to 2017. A Poisson regression model coupled with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) was constructed to evaluate the effects of weather factors (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, cumulative rainfall, wind speed) and the weekly dengue cases in HCMC with lag 1-12 weeks.

Results: The predictive model was based on the following weather factors: wind speed at lag 5-8 and 9-12 weeks; temperature amplitude and humidity at lag 5-8 weeks; rainfall at lag 1-4, 5-8, and 9-12 weeks. The predictive model using climate predictors explained about 80% of the variance in dengue cases with a small value of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE= 0.17). The scoring scheme was then developed from the predictive model; it had a good prediction power – with the accuracy rate = 81%, sensitivity = 1, and specificity = 0.80. In summary, our study indicated that weather factors significantly influence and are predictors for the variation of dengue cases in Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam. We recommend applying this model to improve the prevention of dengue outbreak.

Graphical abstract

Inhibitory effect of medicinal plants on in vitro human peripheral blood mononuclear cell proliferation, interleukin-2 secretion and antioxidant activity

Original Research

Abstract

Many plant parts have been widely used in the treatment of immune diseases in Vietnam, yet just few of them are known about their mechanism of action. The goal of this study was to investigate the in vitro inhibitory effects of in vitro inhibitory effect of crude ethanol extracts and fractions of thirteen medicinal plants on proliferation of human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), interleukin-2 secretion and antioxidant activity. PBMCs were extracted from the whole blood of healthy volunteers. The effects of thirteen crude extracts in ethanol and twenty four fractionated extracts in chloroform, ethyl acetate and water on in vitro proliferation of PBMCs were evaluated using MTT test. Interleukin - 2 (IL - 2) concentrations secreted by PBMC were determined by ELISA method. The antioxidant capacity of ethanol extracts and fractionated extracts were assessed using the DPPH method. The results showed that out of thirteen crude ethanol extracts, six extracts inhibited PBMC proliferation and two extracts stimulated PBMC proliferation and five extracts had no effect on PBMC proliferation. The inhibitory extracts reduced the amount of IL-2, while the stimulant extracts while the stimulant extracts had no effect on IL-2 secretion compared to the control. The chloroform extract of Wedelia chinesis showed the strongest inhibitory activity with an IC50 concentration 16.1 µg/ml. The chloroform extract of Piper betle showed the strongest DPPH capture capacity with DPPH50 1.94 µg/ml and 2.1 times stronger than vitamin C. In conclusion, the chloroform extract of Wedelia chinensis may be considered for the treatment of autoimmune diseases.

Graphical abstract

Phenotypic prevalence of resistance to carbapenems, colistin and genes encoding carbapenemase in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Original Research

Abstract

Introduction: The production of carbapenem enzyme is one of the most frequent mechanisms reported in cabapenem resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Besides, a growing number of mobile colistin resistance (MCR) genes are threatening the renewed interest of colistin as a "last-resort" against carbapenem-resistant pathogens. Therefore, the detection of carbapenem-resistant and colistin-resistant phenotypes as well as preventing transmission of multi-resistant P. aeruginosa strains with genes coding for carbapenemase is extremely necessary.

Material and methods: Among 159 P. aeruginosa strains were collected 46 isolates, which is resistant or intermediated to meropenem. Modified carbapenem inactivation (mCIM) and colistin broth disk elution (CBDE) methods were used to identify carbapenemase-producing strains and colistin resistance. In addition, a multiplex real-time PCR technique was applied to investigate the frequency of emergence of carbapenem resistance genes.

Results: The results revealed that 25 strains (54.3%) were positive with mCIM test and none of them resistant to colistin by CBDE method. Number of strains carrying a gene blaIMP: 4 strains (16%), blaNDM: 2 strains (8%). Strains are carrying two genes: blaIMP + blaNDM: 10 strains (40%), blaVIM + blaNDM: 1 strain (4%), blaNDM + blaOXA-48: 1 strain (4%) and are carrying three genes blaIMP + blaNDM + blaOXA-48: 6 strains (24%), blaKPC + blaIMP + blaNDM: 1 strain (4%).

Conclusions: All mCIM positive P. aeruginosa were contained carbapenemase genes. Colistin still reserved a good effect to combine with other antibiotics in multi-resistant treatment. Hence, the classification of genes can help clinicians selected appropriate antibiotics so that more effective treatment for patients.

Graphical abstract

Rasmussen Encephalitis: A Rare Neurological Disorder

Case Study

Abstract

A case of Rasmussen encephalitis in a 8 year old child is reported here who presented with recurrent focal seizures and progressive weakness of left half of body. EEG showed electrical features of epilepsy. MRI brain showed cortical atrophy of one brain hemisphere. On the basis of clinical and radiological evidence, diagnosis of Rasmussen encephalitis was made which is a rare neurological disorder of childhood.

Graphical abstract

Budget impact analysis of the HIV/AIDS treatment on a national scale: a study from the Vietnam Social Security perspective

Original Research

Abstract

Objectives: To analyze the budget impact of the HIV/AIDS treatment on a national scale, from the Vietnam Social Security (VSS) perspective.

Methods: A model with a 5-year time horizon was developed. The total first year direct medical cost (DMC) and its cost components were estimated for HIV-infected populations each year. Budget impact was described through the proportion of the DMC over the social health insurance (SHI) budget. A scenario analysis was conducted with four settings of different proportions of members and coverage levels of the SHI. All costs were converted to 2020 US dollars. 1-way sensitivity analyses were conducted with variations of mean values in a range of ±25%.

Results: The total DMC was estimated at $1.8M (10,000 cases) to treat all new infections and $27.7M (150,000 cases) to reach the treatment goal of the Ministry of Health (MOH) in 2020. The total DMC accounted for 0.6% of the SHI budget for the year 2020 to meet the treatment goal. The costs of CD4-count test and fully suppressive regimen containing Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (TDF) were identified as key cost drivers. The proportion of the total DMC over the SHI budget among different scenarios did not vary significantly.

Conclusion: This is the first-ever study analyzing the budget impact of the HIV/AIDS treatment on a national scale, from the VSS perspective. The results showed that the cost of HIV/AIDS care was economical and the impact on the SHI budget was reasonable. Findings could be used to notify the MOH to allocate domestic resources and to optimize the current programs.

Graphical abstract

Sex-selective abortion in Vietnam during 1999-2009: the first quantitative study at national level

Original Research

Abstract

Introduction: The sex ratio at birth has dramatically increased since 1999 in Vietnam and stood at 112.7 boys per 100 girls in 2017. This figure alarms many female fetuses are aborted for sex-selection but the numerical evidence is unknown. To depict an accurate picture about the sex-selective abortion, we conducted a study to analyze the national data for sex-abortion in Vietnam.

Methods: To estimate the number of sex-selective abortions between 1999 and 2009, the 2009 Census and 1999 Life table of Vietnam were adopted. We calculated the actual number of female and male births for ten years using the reverse survival method. Then the number of sex-selective abortions was the gap between the expected and actual numbers of female births.

Results: There was 217,902 sex-selective abortions, which accounted for 11.8% of all causes of abortion in Vietnam from 1999 to 2009. The number of sex-selective abortions was nearly double from 74,179 in 1999-2004 to 143,723 in 2005-2009, even the national punishments on sex-selective abortion were launched since 2003.

Conclusions: Female fetuses are more likely aborted before birth for sex-selection in Vietnam because of the son preference. In the situation of Vietnam, changing the social norm regarding female values and roles in both family and society is the key solution to end this problem.

Graphical abstract

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